Back to UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Ashlee Evans-Smith vs Veronica Hardy

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett ·Barclaycard Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Veronica Hardy
33% 67%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
64"
29
Age
Δ 8y
21
W1
Current streak
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2
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Evans-Smith: 73 sig / 2 TD · Hardy: 23 sig / 0 TD
Ashlee Evans-Smith
Veronica Hardy
34
Sig strikes landed
46
80
Sig strikes attempted
106
65
Total strikes landed
85
0.9
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.00
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
194s
Method
Decision
51%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
12%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Ashlee Evans-Smith

"Rebel Girl"
7-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
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L UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
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Blue corner

Veronica Hardy

0-0
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
64"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
21