Prelims1
Welterweight
Peter Sobotta vs Nicolas Dalby
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
·Barclaycard Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Peter Sobotta
Nicolas Dalby
42%
58%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
17-8-1
Career record
Δ 10 pp
24-7-1
L1
Current streak
L1
5
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Sobotta: 38 sig / 3 TD ·
Dalby: 14 sig / 0 TD
Peter Sobotta
Nicolas Dalby
32
Sig strikes landed
34
89
Sig strikes attempted
94
56
Total strikes landed
69
1.9
Takedowns landed
1.0
6.4
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
246s
Control time
119s
Method
Decision
81%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Peter Sobotta
17-8-1
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Munoz vs Mousa…
—
L
UFC 122: Marquardt vs Okami
—
L
UFC 115: Liddell vs Franklin
—
Blue corner
L1
Nicolas Dalby
"Lokomotivo"
24-7-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
D
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—