Main
Light Heavyweight
Alexander Gustafsson vs Jan Blachowicz
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
·Barclaycard Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Alexander Gustafsson
Jan Blachowicz
46%
54%
Why
79"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
18-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
30-11-2
L2
Current streak
W1
11
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Gustafsson: 50 sig / 4 TD ·
Blachowicz: 28 sig / 0 TD
Alexander Gustafsson
Jan Blachowicz
45
Sig strikes landed
45
113
Sig strikes attempted
95
65
Total strikes landed
59
0.7
Takedowns landed
0.9
1.9
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
113s
Control time
101s
Method
Decision
49%
KO/TKO
39%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Alexander Gustafsson
"The Mauler"
18-9
Career record
Height
77"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 7-4
Last 5
L
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Gustafsson vs …
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—
Blue corner
W1
Jan Blachowicz
30-11-2
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—