Main
Light Heavyweight
Ryan Bader vs Ilir Latifi
UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
·Barclaycard Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Bader
Ilir Latifi
80%
20%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 0"
74"
33
Age
Δ 1y
34
23-6
Career record
Δ 13 pp
18-9
L1
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Bader: 13 sig / 0 TD ·
Latifi: 9 sig / 0 TD
Ryan Bader
Ilir Latifi
26
Sig strikes landed
16
57
Sig strikes attempted
59
42
Total strikes landed
26
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.3
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
167s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
25%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Bader
"Darth"
23-6
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
15 fights · 10-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
W
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
Blue corner
W3
Ilir Latifi
"The Sledgehammer"
18-9
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—