Back to UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett
Main Heavyweight

Andrei Arlovski vs Josh Barnett

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett ·Barclaycard Arena
Next fight

Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Andrei Arlovski
Josh Barnett
19% 81%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 1"
78"
38
Age
Δ 1y
39
34-25
Career record
Δ 22 pp
35-9
L2
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
4

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Arlovski: 38 sig / 1 TD · Barnett: 53 sig / 1 TD
Andrei Arlovski
Josh Barnett
32
Sig strikes landed
38
76
Sig strikes attempted
64
43
Total strikes landed
62
0.7
Takedowns landed
1.0
1.7
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
114s
Control time
168s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
28%
Submission
25%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Andrei Arlovski

"The Pitbull"
34-25 (2 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
38
In our database 6 fights · 4-2
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
Blue corner
L1

Josh Barnett

"The Warmaster"
35-9
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database 4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
L UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—
W UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—