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Prelims1 Welterweight

Jessin Ayari vs Jim Wallhead

UFC Fight Night: Arlovski vs. Barnett ·Barclaycard Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Toss-up Confidence: High
Jessin Ayari
Jim Wallhead
50% 50%
Why
24
Age
Δ 8y
32

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Ayari: 70 sig / 0 TD · Wallhead: 47 sig / 0 TD
Jessin Ayari
Jim Wallhead
38
Sig strikes landed
36
82
Sig strikes attempted
74
53
Total strikes landed
51
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.30
136s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
43%
KO/TKO
42%
Submission
16%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Jessin Ayari

0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
Blue corner

Jim Wallhead

"Judo"
0-0
Career record
Height
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33