Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ryan Benoit
Fredy Serrano
73%
27%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 3"
66"
27
Age
Δ 10y
37
10-9
Career record
Δ 14 pp
4-2
L1
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Benoit: 31 sig / 0 TD ·
Serrano: 22 sig / 5 TD
Ryan Benoit
Fredy Serrano
23
Sig strikes landed
25
69
Sig strikes attempted
59
28
Total strikes landed
54
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.4
Takedowns attempted
5.2
0.50
Knockdowns
0.20
90s
Control time
139s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ryan Benoit
"Baby Face"
10-9
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
Blue corner
W2
Fredy Serrano
"El Profe"
4-2
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—