Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Francisco Rivera
Erik Perez
29%
71%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
11-8
Career record
Δ 17 pp
18-6
L2
Current streak
W1
10
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Rivera: 55 sig / 0 TD ·
Perez: 54 sig / 2 TD
Francisco Rivera
Erik Perez
30
Sig strikes landed
40
78
Sig strikes attempted
93
40
Total strikes landed
64
0.1
Takedowns landed
1.6
0.8
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.50
23s
Control time
179s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
44%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Francisco Rivera
"Cisco"
11-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
10 fights · 4-5
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
L
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
Blue corner
W1
Erik Perez
"Goyito"
18-6
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Kamp…
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—