Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Nikita Krylov
Ed Herman
88%
12%
Why
78"
Reach
Δ 0"
77"
24
Age
Δ 11y
36
32-11
Career record
Δ 11 pp
28-16
W4
Current streak
W1
7
UFC fights in our DB
9
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Krylov: 60 sig / 0 TD ·
Herman: 26 sig / 1 TD
Nikita Krylov
Ed Herman
36
Sig strikes landed
22
67
Sig strikes attempted
39
44
Total strikes landed
33
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
1.2
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
115s
Control time
122s
Method
Decision
19%
KO/TKO
45%
Submission
36%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Nikita Krylov
"The Miner"
32-11
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Gustafsson vs Johns…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: McGregor vs Br…
—
L
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
Blue corner
W1
Ed Herman
"Short Fuse"
28-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Moraga
—