Main
Women's Strawweight
Rose Namajunas vs Karolina Kowalkiewicz
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rose Namajunas
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
72%
28%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 1"
64"
24
Age
Δ 7y
31
16-8
Career record
Δ 4 pp
17-10
W3
Current streak
W2
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Namajunas: 70 sig / 2 TD ·
Kowalkiewicz: 84 sig / 0 TD
Rose Namajunas
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
58
Sig strikes landed
45
149
Sig strikes attempted
123
89
Total strikes landed
72
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.1
5.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.00
Knockdowns
0.10
232s
Control time
39s
Method
Decision
75%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
13%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Rose Namajunas
"Thug"
16-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Teixeira vs Evans
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W2
Karolina Kowalkiewicz
17-10
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
64"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs Arl…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—