🏆 Title fight
Main
Welterweight
Robbie Lawler vs Tyron Woodley
UFC 201: Lawler vs. Woodley
·State Farm Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Robbie Lawler
Tyron Woodley
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
31-16
Career record
Δ 5 pp
20-7-1
W5
Current streak
W2
9
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Lawler: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Woodley: 8 sig / 0 TD
Robbie Lawler
Tyron Woodley
69
Sig strikes landed
64
131
Sig strikes attempted
188
73
Total strikes landed
58
0.3
Takedowns landed
0.8
1.0
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.40
58s
Control time
110s
Method
Decision
31%
KO/TKO
54%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Robbie Lawler
"Ruthless"
31-16
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
9 fights · 8-1
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
Blue corner
W2
Tyron Woodley
"The Chosen One"
20-7-1
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Le
—
L
UFC 174: Johnson vs Bagautinov
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
W
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—