Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Matt Brown
Jake Ellenberger
34%
66%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 4"
72"
36
Age
Δ 4y
31
26-20
Career record
Δ 9 pp
31-16
L1
Current streak
L2
16
UFC fights in our DB
15
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Brown: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Ellenberger: 21 sig / 0 TD
Matt Brown
Jake Ellenberger
37
Sig strikes landed
31
64
Sig strikes attempted
55
49
Total strikes landed
48
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.3
1.3
Takedowns attempted
2.7
0.30
Knockdowns
0.70
77s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
32%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Matt Brown
"The Immortal"
26-20
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
16 fights · 9-7
Last 5
L
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
Blue corner
L2
Jake Ellenberger
"The Juggernaut"
31-16
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 9-6
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—