Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Ross Pearson
Jorge Masvidal
22%
78%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 5"
74"
32
Age
Δ 0y
32
20-17
Career record
Δ 12 pp
35-18
L1
Current streak
L2
18
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Pearson: 52 sig / 2 TD ·
Masvidal: 113 sig / 1 TD
Ross Pearson
Jorge Masvidal
51
Sig strikes landed
63
118
Sig strikes attempted
144
58
Total strikes landed
79
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.9
2.6
Takedowns attempted
3.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
74s
Control time
126s
Method
Decision
74%
KO/TKO
18%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Ross Pearson
"The Real Deal"
20-17
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
18 fights · 9-8
Last 5
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Joan…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
Blue corner
L2
Jorge Masvidal
"Gamebred"
35-18
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Gar…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—