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Prelims1 Women's Bantamweight

Lauren Murphy vs Katlyn Cerminara

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker ·Denny Sanford Premier Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Lauren Murphy
Katlyn Cerminara
41% 59%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 1"
68"
33
Age
Δ 6y
28
W1
Current streak
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3
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Murphy: 38 sig / 1 TD · Cerminara: 45 sig / 0 TD
Lauren Murphy
Katlyn Cerminara
49
Sig strikes landed
49
93
Sig strikes attempted
105
85
Total strikes landed
79
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
4.8
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.00
Knockdowns
0.20
272s
Control time
123s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
21%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
W1

Lauren Murphy

"Lucky"
17-7
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
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L UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
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L UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
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Blue corner

Katlyn Cerminara

"Blonde Fighter"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28