Prelims1
Middleweight
Eric Spicely vs Sam Alvey
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Eric Spicely
Sam Alvey
35%
65%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 2"
76"
30
Age
Δ 0y
30
—
Current streak
L2
0
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Spicely: 7 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvey: 8 sig / 0 TD
Eric Spicely
Sam Alvey
24
Sig strikes landed
29
45
Sig strikes attempted
58
36
Total strikes landed
40
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
119s
Control time
61s
Method
Decision
23%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
20%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
Eric Spicely
"Zebrinha"
0-0
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
Blue corner
L2
Sam Alvey
"Smile'N"
33-19-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—