Main
Flyweight
Louis Smolka vs Ben Nguyen
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Louis Smolka
Ben Nguyen
64%
36%
Why
68"
Reach
Δ 4"
65"
25
Age
Δ 3y
28
18-9
Career record
Δ 1 pp
17-8
W3
Current streak
W2
5
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Smolka: 82 sig / 3 TD ·
Nguyen: 4 sig / 0 TD
Louis Smolka
Ben Nguyen
40
Sig strikes landed
29
77
Sig strikes attempted
68
57
Total strikes landed
44
1.3
Takedowns landed
1.0
3.7
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
161s
Control time
99s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
43%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W3
Louis Smolka
"Da Last Samurai"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
5 fights · 4-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
W
UFC 189: Mendes vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Bi…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
Blue corner
W2
Ben Nguyen
"Ten"
17-8
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
65"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—