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Prelims1 Women's Strawweight

Cortney Casey vs Cristina Stanciu

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker ·Denny Sanford Premier Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Clear edge Confidence: High
Cortney Casey
Cristina Stanciu
36% 64%
Why
29
Age
Δ 7y
22
10-11
Career record
Δ 15 pp
5-3
L2
Current streak
L1
2
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Casey: 19 sig / 2 TD · Stanciu: 5 sig / 0 TD
Cortney Casey
Cristina Stanciu
49
Sig strikes landed
53
98
Sig strikes attempted
113
62
Total strikes landed
76
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.4
0.4
Takedowns attempted
3.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
96s
Control time
186s
Method
Decision
40%
KO/TKO
36%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

Cortney Casey

"Cast Iron"
10-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database 2 fights · 0-2
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs M…
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L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
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Blue corner
L1

Cristina Stanciu

"Barbie"
5-3
Career record
Height
63"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
22
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
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