Prelims2
Bantamweight
Rani Yahya vs Matthew Lopez
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Rani Yahya
Matthew Lopez
72%
28%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 2"
69"
32
Age
Δ 2y
30
W2
Current streak
—
9
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 3
Yahya: 40 sig / 3 TD ·
Lopez: 14 sig / 1 TD
Rani Yahya
Matthew Lopez
27
Sig strikes landed
20
61
Sig strikes attempted
48
56
Total strikes landed
35
2.3
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.4
Takedowns attempted
0.6
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
300s
Control time
32s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Rani Yahya
29-12-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
9 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Rous…
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—
Blue corner
Matthew Lopez
0-0
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
30