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Prelims2 Middleweight

Devin Clark vs Alex Nicholson

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker ·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Devin Clark
Alex Nicholson
59% 41%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
78"
26
Age
Δ 0y
26
—
Current streak
L1
0
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Clark: 14 sig / 1 TD · Nicholson: 18 sig / 0 TD
Devin Clark
Alex Nicholson
40
Sig strikes landed
29
80
Sig strikes attempted
72
56
Total strikes landed
36
1.1
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.7
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
152s
Control time
83s
Method
Decision
60%
KO/TKO
31%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner

Devin Clark

"Brown Bear"
0-0
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
Blue corner
L1

Alex Nicholson

"The Spartan"
7-5
Career record
Height
76"
Reach
78"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
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