Back to UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
Main Welterweight

Kyle Noke vs Keita Nakamura

UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker ·Denny Sanford Premier Center
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Kyle Noke
Keita Nakamura
28% 72%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 3"
73"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
22-11-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
34-11-2
L1
Current streak
L1
10
UFC fights in our DB
2

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Noke: 44 sig / 2 TD · Nakamura: 41 sig / 0 TD
Kyle Noke
Keita Nakamura
34
Sig strikes landed
34
65
Sig strikes attempted
66
49
Total strikes landed
51
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.6
1.3
Takedowns attempted
4.2
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
84s
Control time
215s
Method
Decision
29%
KO/TKO
34%
Submission
37%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Kyle Noke

22-11-1
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
76"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
36
In our database 10 fights · 6-4
Last 5
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Ken…
—
W UFC 152: Jones vs Belfort
—
Blue corner
L1

Keita Nakamura

"K-Taro"
34-11-2 (1 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
73"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database 2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—