Main
Heavyweight
Aleksei Oleinik vs Daniel Omielanczuk
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aleksei Oleinik
Daniel Omielanczuk
96%
4%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 6"
74"
39
Age
Δ 5y
34
61-17-1
Career record
Δ 8 pp
20-8-1
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
5
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Majority · Round 3
Oleinik: 8 sig / 4 TD ·
Omielanczuk: 26 sig / 1 TD
Aleksei Oleinik
Daniel Omielanczuk
27
Sig strikes landed
23
55
Sig strikes attempted
41
40
Total strikes landed
34
1.2
Takedowns landed
0.6
2.4
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
293s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
36%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
24%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Aleksei Oleinik
"The Boa Constrictor"
61-17-1
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
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Blue corner
W2
Daniel Omielanczuk
20-8-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
34
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Silva vs Bispi…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Gonzaga vs Cro…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—