Main
Middleweight
Tim Boetsch vs Josh Samman
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Tim Boetsch
Josh Samman
37%
63%
Why
74"
Reach
Δ 5"
79"
36
Age
Δ 7y
28
21-14
Career record
Δ 12 pp
13-5
L3
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
Boetsch: 38 sig / 2 TD ·
Samman: 17 sig / 0 TD
Tim Boetsch
Josh Samman
17
Sig strikes landed
32
32
Sig strikes attempted
62
30
Total strikes landed
52
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.0
2.0
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
89s
Control time
148s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
55%
Submission
21%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L3
Tim Boetsch
"The Barbarian"
21-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
14 fights · 7-7
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
L
UFC 172: Jones vs Teixeira
—
Blue corner
L1
Josh Samman
"Anqa"
13-5
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Jone…
—