Main
Lightweight
Tony Ferguson vs Lando Vannata
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Tony Ferguson
Lando Vannata
73%
27%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
32
Age
Δ 8y
24
W7
Current streak
—
11
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Ferguson: 66 sig / 0 TD ·
Vannata: 40 sig / 0 TD
Tony Ferguson
Lando Vannata
53
Sig strikes landed
35
113
Sig strikes attempted
75
61
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.5
Takedowns attempted
2.1
0.30
Knockdowns
0.20
97s
Control time
79s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
30%
Submission
23%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W7
Tony Ferguson
"El Cucuy"
27-11
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
11 fights · 10-1
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
Blue corner
Lando Vannata
"Groovy"
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24