Main
Bantamweight
Michael McDonald vs John Lineker
UFC Fight Night: McDonald vs. Lineker
·Denny Sanford Premier Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Michael McDonald
John Lineker
35%
65%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 3"
67"
26
Age
Δ 1y
26
18-4
Career record
Δ 4 pp
32-9
W1
Current streak
W4
8
UFC fights in our DB
10
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
McDonald: 14 sig / 0 TD ·
Lineker: 26 sig / 0 TD
Michael McDonald
John Lineker
43
Sig strikes landed
53
119
Sig strikes attempted
129
44
Total strikes landed
60
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.0
Takedowns attempted
1.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.50
19s
Control time
45s
Method
Decision
44%
KO/TKO
40%
Submission
15%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michael McDonald
"Mayday"
18-4
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Benavid…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Sonn…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Barao vs McDona…
—
W
UFC 145: Jones vs Evans
—
Blue corner
W4
John Lineker
"Hands of Stone"
32-9
Career record
Height
63"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database
10 fights · 8-2
Last 5
W
UFC 198: Werdum vs Miocic
—
W
UFC 191: Johnson vs Dodson 2
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
L
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—