Back to UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
Prelims1 Lightweight

Gilbert Burns vs Lukasz Sajewski

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Gilbert Burns
Lukasz Sajewski
59% 41%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 0"
72"
30
Age
Δ 4y
26
22-11
Career record
Δ 10 pp
13-4
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Burns: 13 sig / 1 TD · Sajewski: 14 sig / 0 TD
Gilbert Burns
Lukasz Sajewski
37
Sig strikes landed
21
84
Sig strikes attempted
64
60
Total strikes landed
38
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
224s
Control time
93s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
21%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Gilbert Burns

"Durinho"
22-11
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
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W UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
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W UFC on FOX: Lawler vs Brown
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Blue corner
L1

Lukasz Sajewski

"Wookie"
13-4
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
26
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Jedrzejczyk vs…
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