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John Makdessi vs Mehdi Baghdad

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
John Makdessi
Mehdi Baghdad
71% 29%
Why
31
Age
31
18-10
Career record
Δ 0 pp
11-6
L2
Current streak
L1
11
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Makdessi: 84 sig / 0 TD · Baghdad: 60 sig / 0 TD
John Makdessi
Mehdi Baghdad
55
Sig strikes landed
49
114
Sig strikes attempted
119
77
Total strikes landed
49
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.4
1.7
Takedowns attempted
2.5
0.40
Knockdowns
0.20
92s
Control time
28s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
14%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L2

John Makdessi

"The Bull"
18-10
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 11 fights · 6-5
Last 5
L UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
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L UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
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W UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—
L UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1

Mehdi Baghdad

"The Sultan"
11-6
Career record
Height
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
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