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Prelims1 Bantamweight

Anthony Birchak vs Dileno Lopes

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Anthony Birchak
Dileno Lopes
61% 39%
Why
30
Age
Δ 2y
32
16-9
Career record
Δ 19 pp
19-4
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Birchak: 41 sig / 0 TD · Lopes: 25 sig / 2 TD
Anthony Birchak
Dileno Lopes
35
Sig strikes landed
43
91
Sig strikes attempted
98
53
Total strikes landed
74
0.6
Takedowns landed
1.2
2.2
Takedowns attempted
2.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
78s
Control time
138s
Method
Decision
53%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
22%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Anthony Birchak

"El Toro"
16-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database 3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
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W UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
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L UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
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Blue corner
L1

Dileno Lopes

19-4
Career record
Height
65"
Age
32
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC 190: Rousey vs Correia
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