Main
Heavyweight
Roy Nelson vs Derrick Lewis
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Roy Nelson
Derrick Lewis
25%
75%
Why
73"
Reach
Δ 6"
79"
40
Age
Δ 9y
31
23-14
Career record
Δ 8 pp
30-13
W1
Current streak
W3
15
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Nelson: 4 sig / 7 TD ·
Lewis: 37 sig / 0 TD
Roy Nelson
Derrick Lewis
16
Sig strikes landed
35
32
Sig strikes attempted
77
35
Total strikes landed
51
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.3
3.1
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
202s
Control time
67s
Method
Decision
24%
KO/TKO
50%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Roy Nelson
"Big Country"
23-14
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
40
In our database
15 fights · 7-8
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Barnett vs Nel…
—
L
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
Blue corner
W3
Derrick Lewis
"The Black Beast"
30-13
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Rothwell vs Do…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Boetsch vs Hen…
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—