🏆 Title fight
Main
Lightweight
Rafael Dos Anjos vs Eddie Alvarez
UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez
·MGM Grand Garden Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
Rafael Dos Anjos
Eddie Alvarez
47%
53%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 1"
69"
32
Age
Δ 1y
32
33-17
Career record
Δ 17 pp
30-6
W5
Current streak
W2
16
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Dos Anjos: 12 sig / 0 TD ·
Alvarez: 45 sig / 1 TD
Rafael Dos Anjos
Eddie Alvarez
48
Sig strikes landed
42
117
Sig strikes attempted
108
63
Total strikes landed
61
1.5
Takedowns landed
1.3
3.8
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
172s
Control time
134s
Method
Decision
57%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Rafael Dos Anjos
33-17
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
70"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
16 fights · 13-3
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Santos vs Miocic
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs D…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
Blue corner
W2
Eddie Alvarez
30-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
33
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—