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Joe Duffy vs Mitch Clarke

UFC Fight Night: Dos Anjos vs. Alvarez ·MGM Grand Garden Arena
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Statlab take

baseline
Heavy favorite Confidence: High
Joe Duffy
Mitch Clarke
73% 27%
Why
73"
Reach
73"
28
Age
Δ 2y
31
16-6
Career record
Δ 8 pp
11-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
5

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Duffy: 3 sig / 0 TD · Clarke: 1 sig / 0 TD
Joe Duffy
Mitch Clarke
37
Sig strikes landed
24
76
Sig strikes attempted
68
50
Total strikes landed
34
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
1.2
Takedowns attempted
3.1
0.50
Knockdowns
0.10
100s
Control time
94s
Method
Decision
47%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
24%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Joe Duffy

"Irish"
16-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database 3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L UFC 195: Lawler vs Condit
—
W UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
—
W UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
Blue corner
L1

Mitch Clarke

"Danger Zone"
11-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database 5 fights · 2-3
Last 5
L UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
W UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W UFC 161: Evans vs Henderson
—
L UFC 149: Faber vs Barao
—
L UFC 140: Jones vs Machida
—