Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Jim Alers
Jason Knight
42%
58%
Why
71"
Reach
71"
30
Age
Δ 6y
24
13-3
Career record
Δ 4 pp
20-6
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Alers: 41 sig / 4 TD ·
Knight: 76 sig / 1 TD
Jim Alers
Jason Knight
31
Sig strikes landed
36
69
Sig strikes attempted
64
55
Total strikes landed
51
1.6
Takedowns landed
1.0
5.8
Takedowns attempted
2.4
0.10
Knockdowns
0.60
206s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
20%
Submission
11%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jim Alers
"The Beast"
13-3
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
3 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Minotauro vs N…
—
Blue corner
L1
Jason Knight
"The Kid"
20-6
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
24
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—