Prelims2
Heavyweight
Luis Henrique vs Dmitrii Smoliakov
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Luis Henrique
Dmitrii Smoliakov
67%
33%
Why
74"
Reach
74"
23
Age
Δ 11y
34
L1
Current streak
—
1
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Henrique: 20 sig / 1 TD ·
Smoliakov: 14 sig / 0 TD
Luis Henrique
Dmitrii Smoliakov
26
Sig strikes landed
31
52
Sig strikes attempted
47
51
Total strikes landed
55
1.8
Takedowns landed
0.8
3.6
Takedowns attempted
1.1
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
233s
Control time
131s
Method
Decision
21%
KO/TKO
62%
Submission
17%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Luis Henrique
"KLB"
10-6
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
23
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
Blue corner
Dmitrii Smoliakov
"The Lifeguard"
0-0
Career record
Height
74"
Reach
74"
Stance
Switch
Age
34