Prelims2
Welterweight
Alex Oliveira vs James Moontasri
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Alex Oliveira
James Moontasri
69%
31%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 6"
71"
28
Age
Δ 0y
28
22-13-1
Career record
Δ 6 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
W1
5
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Oliveira: 58 sig / 2 TD ·
Moontasri: 12 sig / 0 TD
Alex Oliveira
James Moontasri
27
Sig strikes landed
19
53
Sig strikes attempted
40
58
Total strikes landed
31
1.7
Takedowns landed
0.4
3.8
Takedowns attempted
1.4
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
250s
Control time
90s
Method
Decision
35%
KO/TKO
38%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Alex Oliveira
"Cowboy"
22-13-1
(2 NC)
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Rom…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Condit vs Alves
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
Blue corner
W1
James Moontasri
"Moon Walker"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Switch
Age
28
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—