Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Michel Prazeres
JC Cottrell
68%
32%
Why
35
Age
Δ 8y
27
W1
Current streak
—
5
UFC fights in our DB
0
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Prazeres: 48 sig / 7 TD ·
Cottrell: 14 sig / 0 TD
Michel Prazeres
JC Cottrell
28
Sig strikes landed
32
54
Sig strikes attempted
71
57
Total strikes landed
48
2.9
Takedowns landed
0.5
6.6
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
281s
Control time
88s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
32%
Submission
16%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Michel Prazeres
"Tractor"
27-4
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
5 fights · 3-2
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs T…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
W
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
L
UFC on FX: Belfort vs. Rockhold
—
Blue corner
JC Cottrell
0-0
Career record
Height
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27