Prelims1
Welterweight
Kamaru Usman vs Alexander Yakovlev
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Kamaru Usman
Alexander Yakovlev
79%
21%
Why
76"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
29
Age
Δ 3y
32
22-4
Career record
Δ 15 pp
25-10-1
W2
Current streak
W2
2
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Usman: 41 sig / 5 TD ·
Yakovlev: 8 sig / 0 TD
Kamaru Usman
Alexander Yakovlev
32
Sig strikes landed
20
65
Sig strikes attempted
48
65
Total strikes landed
37
3.0
Takedowns landed
0.3
6.0
Takedowns attempted
1.3
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
392s
Control time
65s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
27%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Kamaru Usman
"The Nigerian Nightmare"
22-4
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
76"
Stance
Switch
Age
29
In our database
2 fights · 2-0
Last 2
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: American …
—
Blue corner
W2
Alexander Yakovlev
"Russian Thunder"
25-10-1
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
74"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
32
In our database
4 fights · 2-2
Last 4
W
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mendes vs Lamas
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Nelson vs Story
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Mald…
—