Prelims1
Featherweight
Darren Elkins vs Godofredo Pepey
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Darren Elkins
Godofredo Pepey
74%
26%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 2"
74"
32
Age
Δ 3y
29
30-12
Career record
Δ 1 pp
14-6
W2
Current streak
W3
14
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Elkins: 33 sig / 5 TD ·
Pepey: 20 sig / 0 TD
Darren Elkins
Godofredo Pepey
40
Sig strikes landed
29
89
Sig strikes attempted
63
70
Total strikes landed
44
1.9
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.10
258s
Control time
116s
Method
Decision
52%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
26%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W2
Darren Elkins
"The Damage"
30-12
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holohan vs Smo…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Machida vs Dol…
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
Blue corner
W3
Godofredo Pepey
14-6
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
74"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
7 fights · 4-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Arl…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shogun vs Hend…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs Hen…
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—