Prelims1
Bantamweight
Frankie Saenz vs Eddie Wineland
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Frankie Saenz
Eddie Wineland
48%
52%
Why
66"
Reach
Δ 3"
69"
36
Age
Δ 4y
32
13-8
Career record
Δ 5 pp
24-17-1
L1
Current streak
L2
4
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 3
Saenz: 45 sig / 1 TD ·
Wineland: 42 sig / 0 TD
Frankie Saenz
Eddie Wineland
52
Sig strikes landed
52
119
Sig strikes attempted
131
66
Total strikes landed
67
1.3
Takedowns landed
0.6
5.0
Takedowns attempted
1.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.40
99s
Control time
63s
Method
Decision
59%
KO/TKO
33%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Frankie Saenz
13-8
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
66"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
36
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Bader vs Saint…
—
Blue corner
L2
Eddie Wineland
24-17-1
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
8 fights · 3-5
Last 5
L
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Thomson
—
L
UFC 165: Jones vs Gustafsson
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—