Main
Women's Strawweight
Felice Herrig vs Kailin Curran
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Felice Herrig
Kailin Curran
58%
42%
Why
65"
Reach
65"
32
Age
Δ 6y
25
14-11
Career record
Δ 6 pp
5-5
L1
Current streak
W1
2
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Herrig: 13 sig / 1 TD ·
Curran: 5 sig / 0 TD
Felice Herrig
Kailin Curran
31
Sig strikes landed
19
59
Sig strikes attempted
51
54
Total strikes landed
47
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.7
4.3
Takedowns attempted
1.0
0.00
Knockdowns
0.00
256s
Control time
136s
Method
Decision
28%
KO/TKO
12%
Submission
60%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Felice Herrig
"Lil Bulldog"
14-11
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: A Champio…
—
Blue corner
W1
Kailin Curran
5-5
Career record
Height
64"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
25
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—