Statlab take
baseline
Edge
Confidence: High
Edson Barboza
Gilbert Melendez
58%
42%
Why
75"
Reach
Δ 2"
73"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
25-14
Career record
Δ 7 pp
22-9
W1
Current streak
L2
15
UFC fights in our DB
4
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Barboza: 56 sig / 1 TD ·
Melendez: 39 sig / 0 TD
Edson Barboza
Gilbert Melendez
61
Sig strikes landed
53
145
Sig strikes attempted
129
64
Total strikes landed
69
0.4
Takedowns landed
0.9
0.9
Takedowns attempted
3.7
0.60
Knockdowns
0.10
29s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
25%
Submission
7%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W1
Edson Barboza
"Junior"
25-14
Career record
Height
71"
Reach
75"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
31
In our database
15 fights · 11-4
Last 5
W
UFC 197: Jones vs Saint Preux
—
L
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Bigfoot vs Mir
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
Blue corner
L2
Gilbert Melendez
"El Nino"
22-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
73"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
4 fights · 1-3
Last 4
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
L
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Melend…
—