Main
Women's Bantamweight
Holly Holm vs Valentina Shevchenko
UFC on FOX: Holm vs. Shevchenko
·United Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Holly Holm
Valentina Shevchenko
24%
76%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
66"
35
Age
Δ 6y
28
15-8
Career record
Δ 16 pp
26-5-1
L1
Current streak
L1
4
UFC fights in our DB
2
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Holm: 54 sig / 0 TD ·
Shevchenko: 87 sig / 3 TD
Holly Holm
Valentina Shevchenko
33
Sig strikes landed
42
113
Sig strikes attempted
95
60
Total strikes landed
73
0.2
Takedowns landed
2.8
1.1
Takedowns attempted
5.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.30
73s
Control time
240s
Method
Decision
68%
KO/TKO
17%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Holly Holm
"The Preacher's Daughter"
15-8
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
35
In our database
4 fights · 3-1
Last 4
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Mir vs Duffee
—
W
UFC 184: Rousey vs Zingano
—
Blue corner
L1
Valentina Shevchenko
"Bullet"
26-5-1
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
2 fights · 1-1
Last 2
L
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dos Anjos vs. Cowbo…
—