Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Brock Lesnar
Mark Hunt
71%
29%
Why
81"
Reach
Δ 9"
72"
39
Age
Δ 3y
42
5-4
Career record
Δ 7 pp
14-14-1
L2
Current streak
W2
3
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Overturned · Round 3
Lesnar: 51 sig / 4 TD ·
Hunt: 13 sig / 0 TD
Brock Lesnar
Mark Hunt
23
Sig strikes landed
30
73
Sig strikes attempted
58
48
Total strikes landed
41
0.8
Takedowns landed
0.7
2.4
Takedowns attempted
0.7
-0.10
Knockdowns
0.50
103s
Control time
96s
Method
Decision
14%
KO/TKO
72%
Submission
14%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L2
Brock Lesnar
5-4
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
81"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
39
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC 141: Lesnar vs Overeem
—
L
UFC 121: Lesnar vs Velasquez
—
W
UFC 116: Lesnar vs Carwin
—
Blue corner
W2
Mark Hunt
"Super Samoan"
14-14-1
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
42
In our database
12 fights · 7-4
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Mir
—
W
UFC 193: Rousey vs Holm
—
L
UFC Fight Night: Miocic vs Hunt
—
L
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—