🏆 Title fight
Main
Women's Bantamweight
Miesha Tate vs Amanda Nunes
UFC 200: Tate vs Nunes
·T-Mobile Arena
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Miesha Tate
Amanda Nunes
38%
62%
Why
65"
Reach
Δ 4"
69"
30
Age
Δ 2y
28
21-10
Career record
Δ 15 pp
24-5
W5
Current streak
W3
7
UFC fights in our DB
6
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 1
Tate: 3 sig / 0 TD ·
Nunes: 40 sig / 0 TD
Miesha Tate
Amanda Nunes
28
Sig strikes landed
42
64
Sig strikes attempted
81
61
Total strikes landed
69
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.2
4.1
Takedowns attempted
2.0
0.10
Knockdowns
0.20
178s
Control time
129s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
37%
Submission
32%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W5
Miesha Tate
"Cupcake"
21-10
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
65"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Hunt vs Nelson
—
W
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
Blue corner
W3
Amanda Nunes
"The Lioness"
24-5
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
69"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 5-1
Last 5
W
UFC 196: McGregor vs Diaz
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Teixeira vs Sa…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs LaFlare
—
L
UFC 178: Johnson vs Cariaso
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Fight for the …
—