Statlab take
baseline
Lean
Confidence: High
TJ Dillashaw
Raphael Assuncao
56%
44%
Why
67"
Reach
Δ 0"
66"
30
Age
Δ 4y
34
18-6
Career record
Δ 1 pp
29-10
L1
Current streak
W7
11
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Dillashaw: 64 sig / 1 TD ·
Assuncao: 49 sig / 0 TD
TJ Dillashaw
Raphael Assuncao
74
Sig strikes landed
63
168
Sig strikes attempted
141
94
Total strikes landed
79
1.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
4.4
Takedowns attempted
1.8
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
174s
Control time
58s
Method
Decision
69%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
TJ Dillashaw
18-6
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
11 fights · 8-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
W
UFC 177: Dillashaw vs Soto
—
W
UFC 173: Barao vs Dillashaw
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Rockhold vs Ph…
—
Blue corner
W7
Raphael Assuncao
29-10
Career record
Height
65"
Reach
67"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Maia vs Shields
—
W
UFC on FUEL TV: Nogueira vs. We…
—
W
UFC on FOX: Henderson vs Diaz
—