Statlab take
baseline
Toss-up
Confidence: High
Johny Hendricks
Kelvin Gastelum
48%
52%
Why
69"
Reach
Δ 2"
72"
33
Age
Δ 8y
25
18-9
Career record
Δ 3 pp
21-12
L1
Current streak
L1
14
UFC fights in our DB
8
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Hendricks: 70 sig / 1 TD ·
Gastelum: 124 sig / 0 TD
Johny Hendricks
Kelvin Gastelum
57
Sig strikes landed
55
123
Sig strikes attempted
123
75
Total strikes landed
71
1.2
Takedowns landed
1.0
4.6
Takedowns attempted
2.9
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
161s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
64%
KO/TKO
27%
Submission
9%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Johny Hendricks
"Bigg Rigg"
18-9
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
69"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
33
In our database
14 fights · 10-4
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Hendricks vs T…
—
W
UFC 185: Pettis vs Dos Anjos
—
L
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
W
UFC 171: Hendricks vs Lawler
—
L
UFC 167: St-Pierre vs Hendricks
—
Blue corner
L1
Kelvin Gastelum
21-12
(1 NC)
Career record
Height
69"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
25
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—
W
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
L
UFC 183: Silva vs Diaz
—
W
UFC 180: Werdum vs Hunt
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Swanson vs Ste…
—