Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Sage Northcutt
Enrique Marin
89%
11%
Why
20
Age
Δ 10y
30
11-3
Career record
Δ 12 pp
10-5
L1
Current streak
L1
3
UFC fights in our DB
1
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 3
Northcutt: 41 sig / 0 TD ·
Marin: 16 sig / 4 TD
Sage Northcutt
Enrique Marin
48
Sig strikes landed
26
93
Sig strikes attempted
69
70
Total strikes landed
49
1.1
Takedowns landed
1.4
2.2
Takedowns attempted
3.5
0.20
Knockdowns
0.10
173s
Control time
217s
Method
Decision
48%
KO/TKO
22%
Submission
30%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Sage Northcutt
"Super"
11-3
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
72"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
20
In our database
3 fights · 2-1
Last 3
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs. Bader
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC 192: Cormier vs Gustafsson
—
Blue corner
L1
Enrique Marin
"Wasabi"
10-5
Career record
Height
70"
Age
30
In our database
1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L
UFC Fight Night: Magny vs Gaste…
—