Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Cain Velasquez
Travis Browne
65%
35%
Why
77"
Reach
Δ 2"
79"
34
Age
Δ 0y
34
14-4
Career record
Δ 7 pp
19-7-1
L1
Current streak
W1
8
UFC fights in our DB
13
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 1
Velasquez: 50 sig / 1 TD ·
Browne: 6 sig / 0 TD
Cain Velasquez
Travis Browne
44
Sig strikes landed
34
78
Sig strikes attempted
73
65
Total strikes landed
39
1.6
Takedowns landed
0.1
4.3
Takedowns attempted
0.9
0.40
Knockdowns
0.10
190s
Control time
38s
Method
Decision
30%
KO/TKO
57%
Submission
12%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Cain Velasquez
14-4
Career record
Height
73"
Reach
77"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
8 fights · 6-2
Last 5
L
UFC 188: Velasquez vs Werdum
—
W
UFC 166: Velasquez vs Dos Santo…
—
W
UFC 160: Velasquez vs Silva 2
—
W
UFC 155: Dos Santos vs Velasque…
—
W
UFC 146: Dos Santos vs Mir
—
Blue corner
W1
Travis Browne
"Hapa"
19-7-1
Career record
Height
78"
Reach
79"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
34
In our database
13 fights · 9-3
Last 5
W
UFC Fight Night: Dillashaw vs C…
—
L
UFC 187: Johnson vs Cormier
—
W
UFC 181: Hendricks vs Lawler II
—
L
UFC on FOX: Werdum vs Browne
—
W
UFC 168: Weidman vs Silva 2
—