Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Jose Aldo
Frankie Edgar
84%
16%
Why
70"
Reach
Δ 2"
68"
30
Age
Δ 5y
35
32-11
Career record
Δ 8 pp
24-11-1
L1
Current streak
W5
8
UFC fights in our DB
12
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Unanimous · Round 5
Aldo: 80 sig / 0 TD ·
Edgar: 79 sig / 0 TD
Jose Aldo
Frankie Edgar
71
Sig strikes landed
70
189
Sig strikes attempted
177
87
Total strikes landed
94
0.8
Takedowns landed
1.1
2.4
Takedowns attempted
6.2
0.30
Knockdowns
0.10
64s
Control time
128s
Method
Decision
63%
KO/TKO
29%
Submission
8%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Jose Aldo
32-11
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
70"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
30
In our database
8 fights · 7-1
Last 5
L
UFC 194: Aldo vs McGregor
—
W
UFC 179: Aldo vs Mendes 2
—
W
UFC 169: Barao vs Faber 2
—
W
UFC 163: Aldo vs Jung
—
W
UFC 156: Aldo vs Edgar
—
Blue corner
W5
Frankie Edgar
"The Answer"
24-11-1
Career record
Height
66"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
35
In our database
12 fights · 8-3
Last 5
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team McGr…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Faber
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Edgar vs Swans…
—
W
The Ultimate Fighter: Team Edga…
—
W
UFC 162: Silva vs Weidman
—