Prelims2
Bantamweight
Aljamain Sterling vs Bryan Caraway
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Heavy favorite
Confidence: High
Aljamain Sterling
Bryan Caraway
84%
16%
Why
71"
Reach
Δ 3"
68"
27
Age
Δ 5y
32
27-5
Career record
Δ 13 pp
22-9
W4
Current streak
W1
4
UFC fights in our DB
7
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Decision - Split · Round 3
Sterling: 32 sig / 1 TD ·
Caraway: 9 sig / 3 TD
Aljamain Sterling
Bryan Caraway
49
Sig strikes landed
27
94
Sig strikes attempted
79
73
Total strikes landed
48
2.0
Takedowns landed
1.4
5.1
Takedowns attempted
4.6
0.20
Knockdowns
0.00
265s
Control time
146s
Method
Decision
58%
KO/TKO
15%
Submission
28%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
W4
Aljamain Sterling
"Funk Master"
27-5
Career record
Height
67"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
27
In our database
4 fights · 4-0
Last 4
W
UFC Fight Night: Namajunas vs. …
—
W
UFC on FOX: Machida vs Rockhold
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Mill…
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
Blue corner
W1
Bryan Caraway
"Kid Lightning"
22-9
Career record
Height
68"
Reach
68"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
32
In our database
7 fights · 5-2
Last 5
W
UFC on FOX: Dillashaw vs. Barao…
—
L
UFC Fight Night: MacDonald vs S…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Henderson vs K…
—
W
UFC 159: Jones vs Sonnen
—
L
UFC on FUEL TV: Silva vs. Stann
—