Prelims1
Lightweight
Erik Koch vs Shane Campbell
UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt
·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Statlab take
baseline
Clear edge
Confidence: High
Erik Koch
Shane Campbell
64%
36%
Why
72"
Reach
Δ 0"
71"
28
Age
Δ 2y
29
16-7
Career record
Δ 3 pp
14-7
L1
Current streak
L1
6
UFC fights in our DB
3
Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.
Statlab projections
Actual result
Submission · Round 2
Koch: 14 sig / 2 TD ·
Campbell: 16 sig / 0 TD
Erik Koch
Shane Campbell
26
Sig strikes landed
27
47
Sig strikes attempted
55
36
Total strikes landed
45
0.9
Takedowns landed
0.8
2.8
Takedowns attempted
3.0
0.20
Knockdowns
0.20
140s
Control time
108s
Method
Decision
56%
KO/TKO
26%
Submission
18%
Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).
Red corner
L1
Erik Koch
"Phoenix"
16-7
Career record
Height
70"
Reach
72"
Stance
Southpaw
Age
28
In our database
6 fights · 3-3
Last 5
L
UFC Fight Night: Brown vs Silva
—
W
UFC 170: Rousey vs McMann
—
L
UFC 164: Henderson vs Pettis 2
—
L
UFC on FOX: Johnson vs Dodson
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Shields vs Ell…
—
Blue corner
L1
Shane Campbell
"Shaolin"
14-7
Career record
Height
72"
Reach
71"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29
In our database
3 fights · 1-2
Last 3
L
UFC Fight Night: Cowboy vs Cowb…
—
W
UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs Ol…
—
L
UFC 186: Johnson vs Horiguchi
—