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Prelims2 Heavyweight

Chris de la Rocha vs Adam Milstead

UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs Garbrandt ·Mandalay Bay Events Center
Previous fight

Statlab take

baseline
Edge Confidence: High
Chris de la Rocha
Adam Milstead
40% 60%
Why
80"
Reach
Δ 4"
76"
37
Age
Δ 8y
29
L1
Current streak
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1
UFC fights in our DB
0

Logistic-regression model trained on ~5,000 UFC/DWCS fights since 2016 (71.9% test accuracy). The "Why" panel shows interpretable inputs; the headline probability comes from the model.

Statlab projections

Method classifier: 0.55 accuracy on 2083 fights
Actual result
KO/TKO · Round 2
de la Rocha: 39 sig / 0 TD · Milstead: 58 sig / 0 TD
Chris de la Rocha
Adam Milstead
43
Sig strikes landed
39
93
Sig strikes attempted
69
56
Total strikes landed
49
0.5
Takedowns landed
0.6
3.6
Takedowns attempted
0.8
0.10
Knockdowns
0.30
40s
Control time
151s
Method
Decision
38%
KO/TKO
53%
Submission
9%

Stat regressor (GBT MultiOutput) trained on 8348 fighter-fight rows. Per-stat MAE vs naive-mean baseline: SigStrikesLanded: 25.4 (naive 28.2); SigStrikesAttempted: 52.3 (naive 59.4); TakedownsLanded: 1.1 (naive 1.3); TakedownsAttempted: 2.5 (naive 3.0); Knockdowns: 0.3 (naive 0.3); ControlTimeSeconds: 113.9 (naive 131.8); TotalStrikesLanded: 33.8 (naive 37.1).

Red corner
L1

Chris de la Rocha

5-4
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
80"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
37
In our database 1 fight · 0-1
Last 1
L UFC Fight Night: Bisping vs Lei…
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Blue corner

Adam Milstead

"The Prototype"
0-0
Career record
Height
75"
Reach
76"
Stance
Orthodox
Age
29